SIF

Climate change is creating new challenges for those who plan and manage long-lived infrastructure. Future conditions are increasingly uncertain. Changing precipitation patterns, extreme weather, sea-level rise, natural hazards, and potential large-scale climate changes such as a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) all illustrate that planning based on a single projection is no longer sufficient. This interactive workshop introduces Dynamic Adaptation Pathways Planning (DAPP), a method for supporting robust long-term decision-making under deep uncertainty. DAPP helps decision makers identify flexible pathways that can be adjusted as new information becomes available. The workshop aims to be the starting point for a research collaboration between Denmark and Iceland on climate change and critical infrastructure risk.

Format of Workshop

Following a short introduction to the DAPP methodology, participants will work in interdisciplinary groups on two Icelandic cases.

Case A – Keeping Iceland's Electricity System Resilient under Climate and Natural Hazard Uncertainty. Participants will explore adaptation pathways for Iceland's electricity system under uncertain future conditions, such aschanging precipitation patterns, glacier retreat, extreme weather events, landslides, and possible climate changes associated with a weakening of AMOC.

Case B – Planning the Sundabraut Transport Corridor under Deep Climate Uncertainty. Participants will explore long-term planning options for one of Iceland's largest planned infrastructure investments, considering uncertainties related to climate change, coastal conditions, future transport demand, technological development, and urban growth.

The workshop concludes with a comparison of the different adaptation pathways developed by the groups and a discussion of lessons for Icelandic infrastructure planning.

Participation is by invitation only. Places are limited to approximately 30 participants to ensure active discussion and group work.